Wizards Have Tough Decisions Ahead As Trade Deadline Nears

Greetings from the University of Minnesota where it is currently a balmy -19 degrees!  Too cold to go to class, so let’s talk some Wizards hoops! As a fan of the Wizards, I have really enjoyed watching my team play these past few weeks going . Also, during the team’s trip to London, Washington Wizards owner, Ted Leonsis, stated emphatically that this team “will never, ever tank”. I have to be honest, it kind of got me fired me up for the remainder of the season. In this post, I will tell you what his words most likely mean leading up to the trade deadline, I will examine possible moves, and I will give you my opinions on it all. But first, let’s quickly look at what has happened the past 10 games, and what it means for the outlook on this season.

The Stretch

The Wizards, although ending with 2 tough ones to finish at 5-5, have looked like a completely different team over the past 10 games. While at the game on January 9^th against the 76ers, I saw a team that played together, played hard, and fought until the end beating a top Eastern conference team by 17 points. Throughout the last few weeks, there have been many inspiring performances, including taking the Toronto Raptors into double OT on the back of a Bradley Beal 40-point triple Double, beating the Bucks at home with Sato recording his first career triple-double, and Thomas Bryant scoring a game-winning goaltended layup in London to beat the Knicks.

The team finally looks like they enjoy playing with each other, and as a result, it seems they are communicating better on the court. Although defense has still been suspect at times, I have seen numerous shot clock violations forced, multiple charges taken, and help side defense come more regularly. In 5 of these past 10 games, the Wizards held their opposition below their season average for points…. Take a second to re-read that just to prove to yourself you read that correctly. The Wizards, previously at the bottom of the NBA in defense, have been playing respectable, good defense as of late. A lot of this has to do with the team’s length with players like Tomas Satoransky, Otto Porter, and Trevor Ariza. Unfortunately, the Wizards ended this stretch in horrible fashion tonight against the Cavs on the road, but after watching this last stretch, it is clear that this team is not the same rollover and die team they were a month ago.

Key Performers

Recently, multiple players on the roster have stepped up, but what remains the same is that Bradley Beal is an absolute stud. He will 100% be an all-star this year. He has averaged 27.6 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 5.7 rpg  in January carrying this team while also not over dominating the ball. Prior to this year, a lot of people have criticized him for a lack of ability to hit shots in the 4th quarter which he has silenced this year. Only he and Giannis Antetokounmpo are averaging over 6 points per game in the 4th while shooting over 55% from the floor in the quarter.

In no way has Beal gotten the Wizards back in to playoff contention alone. Thomas Bryant gets more and more comfortable every single game, and he has quickly become one of my favorite players on the roster. The kid plays hard, runs the floor, and can hit outside shots; he has a bright future. Ian Mahinmi sees an extended role when the Wizards go up against larger centers since Bryant still needs to put on a little weight, and even he has seemed to get his confidence back. Ian has come in and given some solid production lately doing his best to foul less than usual, a historical, catastrophic issue for him, and he has shown a decent touch around the rim. Porter is getting healthier every week and has been showing why so many teams are interested in trading for him scoring an efficient 15.8 ppg off the bench. On top of this, Sato continues to run the point beautifully, and I got my wish from the last post that Troy Brown start getting some more consistent minutes off the bench! He has been smooth, smart, and shown a great ability to draw contact and get to the line; I have been extremely impressed.

The addition of Trevor Ariza continues to be great as he has finally found his shot from outside shooting 36% from 3 the last 5 games while scoring 17.2 ppg. Jeff Green, who has had the 5th best 3 point percentage in the East since the new year, Trevor Ariza, and Otto Porter, continue to be a fantastic wing trio. Quite frankly, this current roster seems to be full of gym rats, guys who just want to play ball, and I love that they are playing together and playing hard night in and night out.

Outlook

I think this team will make the playoffs this year. They have won games in this past stretch that a few weeks ago I would’ve guessed they’d be blown out in. However, tonight’s loss to Cleveland was bad. That was the type of game they cannot afford to lose, but it was an anomaly when compared with the rest of the games the last few weeks. Losses to teams like the Cavs have gone from regular to anomaly and now need to go from anomaly to nonexistent.

Currently, Basketball Reference gives the Wizards only a 17.9% chance to make the playoffs as they are currently 3.5 games out of the 8th seed. With a 15-9 record at home and a recently shown ability to win road games, there is no reason the Wizards cannot come back in the standings to take the 8th seed from the Hornets or the Heat. Unfortunately, John Wall will not be able to make a late season return from injury like last year to help out the effort, but they have been playing better since he has gone down. That is because they were playing with only a fraction of him while he was on the court this season.

Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris presumably are semi-nearing returns for this season, and if nothing else, that will just add more depth to this currently confident roster. Howard as of tomorrow will have been recovering for 2 months of a 2-3-month recovery process after his back surgery and getting him back into the lineup would help the Wizards depth greatly.

I hope that the Wizards reinsert the now healthy Otto Porter into the starting lineup for Jeff Green soon even though he has been playing great off of the bench because the starters have opened up both the first and second halves of games very poorly a few too many times in this recent stretch. This happened tonight against the Cavs when the Wizards dug themselves a 15 point hole in the 3rd quarter before they put Porter into the game.  Porter and Ariza together in the starting lineup will open up games and 3rd quarters with great length on defense along with Sato at the point, and Green will be able to produce in his bench role. Once Morris comes back in the next 2-4 weeks, I would like him and Green to serve as the go to scorers in the second unit with Porter back in his natural role as a starter, and putting Porter back in the lineup now would make the adjustment process go more smoothly when that time comes. If all goes well, I truly believe the Wizards will sneak in to the playoffs at the end of the year.

Possible Trade Deadline (Feb. 7) Attempts And my Opinions

Trade Trevor Ariza (No)

Ariza just got traded back to the Wizards this season and has been producing really well. I have loved having him because of his length, his shooting, and his veteran presence around a team that desperately needed direction before he arrived. The Wizards could quite possibly make the playoffs this year and AT BEST pull off a first-round upset if getting Howard and Morris back healthy helps them out that much down the stretch. However, winning a series in the playoffs is a long shot. The Wizards would greatly reduce their chances of making the playoffs by going through with a trade involving Ariza but could get a draft pick in return. Due to the NBA collective bargaining agreement, the Wizards can only do a player for player swap with Ariza and ask for picks added in but no more players. Here is 1 idea:

Wizards get: Brandon Knight (2 years left $30 mil total) 2019 first-round pick
Rockets get: Trevor Ariza

The Wizards would basically be taking a salary dump in Brandon Knight because he is grossly overpaid and does not produce for the Rockets at all, but they could squeeze a first-rounder out of the trade most likely. The Wizards could also consider the same type of deal with the Trail Blazers instead for Moe Harkless (2 years left $21.3 mil total) and a second-round pick from them, but I personally would not do either because the Wizards already have Wall, Beal, Porter, and Mahinmi with large contracts going through next year. Therefore, they cannot afford to take on salary dumps that last through next year just to get some mediocre picks from teams involved in the current arms race of the Western Conference. I would rather keep Ariza, push for the playoffs, and have some excitement this year.

Trade Otto Porter (No)

Otto Porter has proved time and time again that he is a very efficient, versatile player. He tends to get to show this more when Wall goes down with injury unfortunately, but when he is utilized as a legitimate part of the offense, he shows why the front office believed in him enough to give him a max contract. Multiple teams including, the Pelicans, the Mavericks, the Jazz, and the Kings have been interested in trading for him. So, the Wizards can explore these options.

In my opinion, Moving Porter would move a large contract off the books so the cap is more spread out, but that’s about it. He is not done growing as a player, he defends well with his great length, rebounds very well for his position, and is a very efficient scorer. I do not think the Wizards would get the right value for him right now. They could not get a first-round pick that would end up being top-16 unless they trade with the Mavericks, and I think holding on to a glue guy like Porter is important. The only trade I would accept would be if the Pelicans were to trade Anthony Davis and Solomon Hill to Washington for Porter, John Wall, and the Wizards 2019 first-round pick. However, the Pelicans would not move Davis to the Wizards without getting Beal and would not want Wall who will be on a super max contract and be coming off another lower body surgery; they can get more for AD. Right now, the Wizards should not make a move with Porter, but that does not mean a time to move him will never come before his contract is up.

Trade Beal (No)

Instead of talking about this in detail, I’ll just pose some questions- why would we trade the brightest part about the team? Why trade a young rising star who is on an extremely reasonable contract? Even if we get picks and young players for Beal, what does that solve if John Wall’s surgery does not fix his effort, defense and ball dominance? As you can tell, I firmly believe trading Beal at the moment is a ridiculous notion.

What the Wizards Will do

I expect the Wizards to do absolutely nothing at the trade deadline. On February 6th, the day before the deadline, the front office will turn off their lights, unplug their phones, and leave the office for the day. I honestly agree with this move. It has been reported that the Wizards want to hold on to Ariza for the remainder of the year, and they “have shown little appetite for dealing Otto Porter Jr.”- Bleacher Report

Not every team can be a title contender, but a lot of teams can be competitive, and some competitive teams surprise and contend. The Wizards should not blow up the house right now and give up on years of playoffs and competing. No matter what action is taken now, they are years away from even maybe contending for a championship anyways. Now is time to enjoy the young guns on the team, watch the healthy veterans shine, and hope they can make the playoffs without Wall. Then, we can hope when Wall comes back after his surgery, he is back to the player he was before he got this injury bug. Also, after this year, there are only 5 contracts on the books, and after next season Ian Mahinmi’s horrible contract will be gone. This team will soon have a little more breathing room to make moves. If things do not seem to be getting better a year-year and a half down the line, then it will be time to seriously consider making blockbuster moves, but now is not the time.

I hope this stretch was just as fun for you as it was for me! If anything happens around the trade deadline with the Wizards, I will be on top of it here for you all!! stay tuned!

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If nothing noteworthy happens, next post will be February 23!