Chaos. The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery was chaos. Before we talk about the Wizards and their options at 9, let’s talk about the lottery itself first. I think it’s fair to say that the night did not go the way most teams were expecting it to.
As you can see in the pictures above, numerous teams that had satisfactory odds to land a top pick going into the night did not see their plans and expectations come to fruition. The Bulls, Suns, Cavs, and Hawks all ended up in considerably lower draft positions than I’m sure they were anticipating based on their odds. On the other hand, the Pelicans with only a 6% chance to get the #1 overall pick finished the night on top, and the Grizzlies with the same odds were gifted the #2 overall pick. With all things being considered, there are a lot of positives about the new draft lottery and some negatives too.
Some fans will not like the new format, understandably so, because it gives teams a chance to get “robbed” of a top pick after a down year. Bulls fans especially have a right to be upset after last night. They have had several down years now, made a good trade at the deadline, ended the year with momentum, and had solid odds to land the number one pick. With the 4th best odds, I’m sure they were hoping to end somewhere as good as 1 or 2 and expected to be somewhere around 3-5. After they got the 7th pick, I texted my good friend Alex Pastor, Bulls fan who is attending the University of Minnesota with me, and he was extremely disappointed with where the Bulls landed and expressed his discontent with the new lottery format. He said he believes that “if teams want to tank, they deserve a guarantee of where they’ll be picking”. I do believe there is some truth to that because bad teams getting the top picks is what helps the NBA be cyclical and allow teams at the bottom get back to the top. However, I think I land more on the side of liking this new format.
Evening out the odds of the draft lottery was supposed to be a deterrent for tanking. Watching teams tank is boring, and it is ultimately bad for ratings because fans do not want to watch a horrendous product. Now, teams can just be relatively bad and get a top pick without fully tanking by trading all serviceable talent away and throwing dreadful lineups out on the court. I imagine the results of last night will illustrate to teams that tanking does not guarantee anything anymore. After the results came out, Rudy Gobert tweeted this:
Since the bottom 3 teams all have the same chance to land the number 1 pick (14%), and that it is only 5% higher than the team with the 6th worse record, no one is guaranteed anything. I feel that the new format not only is a great disincentive for tanking that will force teams to continue to put a good product on the court, but it also is good for the excitement of the lottery and the draft. I think this will lead to more people tuning into the lottery in the future, and it will lead to more trades on draft nights.
Wizards Land at 9
I have to admit that I was not ecstatic when I saw that the Wizards obtained the 9th pick last night, but after thinking about it more, there is a lot of reason for positivity in my opinion. Not only are there a few players the Wizards could take here, but they could also trade down. Let me explain.
Draft options
Rui Hachimura
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1086007663895474182
The 6’8″ Japan native has a ton of upside in my opinion, and I would be very excited if the Wizards drafted him at 9. He can play the 3 or the 4, can post up smaller defenders, can drive by bigger, slower defenders, and he shot 41.7%* from 3 last year. The reason I put an asterisk next to his shooting percentage from 3 is that he only took 1 three per game this past season, so it was a very small sample size. However, he shot an average of just under 77% from the free throw line over the past 2 seasons, so that in addition to his smooth stroke gives me a reason to believe he will be able to knock down shots from the outside at the next level. He is very good from midrange, finishing around the rim, and he drives extremely under control. Where he needs to improve the most is on the defensive end. He has the tools to be a solid defender, but he lacks elite athleticism and will need time to grow on that end of the floor. If the Wizards drafted him, they could decline Jabari Parker’s player option and forget about offering him a new contract. Also, the front office could consider not resigning Portis if they draft Hachimura. I still have a desire to resign Portis if the contract price is reasonable though.
Sekou Doumbouya
I do not know a ton about Sekou Doumbouya seeing that I am a 19-year old American with no access to scouts or front office execs, but I have seen his name come up a few times in the past 24 hours. As a result, I decided to do a little research on the 18-year old from France. Doumbouya is 6’9″ and has the ability to play the 3 or the 4 from what I’ve seen in his highlights. He seems to be a very good athlete with solid shooting mechanics, and that is always promising. It is clear on tape that he is very young and unpolished, but the fact that he is only 18 means that he has a ton of time to improve. Here is a link to a scouting report of him done by NBA Scouting Room: http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2017/02/sekou-doumbouya.html
Overall, he seems to be a really interesting prospect with a ton of upside and a lot of room to improve. I will gladly leave the decision of what to do in regards to Doumbouya up to whoever the GM is on draft night since I did not know who he was until 24-hours ago. If the Wizards draft him, I will have a lot of justifiable optimism towards his capabilities based upon what I have watched and read about him.
Trade Back
Trading back would not be a bad idea seeing that the Wizards need assets and do not own the rights to a second-round pick until 2023. If a player like Cam Reddish or De’Andre Hunter falls to the Wizards at 9, then they have to pick them, but in any other scenario, trading down may be the best play. Last year, the 76ers traded down from 10 to 16 and got a 2021 unprotected first-round pick out of it. So, all it takes is for one team outside of the lottery, or even just in the late lottery, to get super high on a player projected to go out of their reach for the Wizards to cash in. There are some intriguing prospects in the mid to late first-round the Wizards could consider anyways. For example, Tyler Herro and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are both guards worth taking fliers on in the mid or late first-round. Herro, as we all know, can score the Ball. He is a very interesting 3&D prospect for the next level but needs to find consistency. I loved his game at Kentucky, and I think a lot of front offices will be interested in him too. On the other hand, Alexander-Walker has a lot more upside than I think a lot of people realize. He is very smart, can score in a multitude of ways, and boasts a 6’9″ wingspan on a 6’5″ frame.
Although 9 is not what everyone was hoping for going into the lottery, the Wizards have a lot of flexibility with where they are in this draft order. There are good players they could take with their pick, a very high upside player could fall into their lap, or they could trade down to get assets and an intriguing mid to late round prospect. A quick post regarding who I want the Wizards to take and what it means for others who are on the roster already will come out the week of the draft. Stay posted…
Boo On The Bullets 