(All linked stats are as of February 20th, 2020)

Yesterday, I posted a poll on Twitter (@BoosBulletsBlog) asking if people think Mo Wagner or Thomas Bryant is the better option for the Wizards. Of the 28 votes cast, 18 were for Mo Wagner, and 10 were for Thomas Bryant. To those of you who are not fully on board “the Mo Wagner >Thomas Bryant train”, I am going to try to convince you to hop on.

Defense

Thomas Bryant: Through advanced statistical analysis, Bleacher Report proclaimed Thomas Bryant to be the worst center in the league on the defensive end of the floor. It is obvious just by watching him that he lacks any competence in guarding the pick and roll, as he often gets caught between playing the ball handler and the roller which results in him defending neither. Even though he is very athletic, Bryant ranks a lowly 74th in blocks per 36 minutes, and if that doesn’t already hint at his infectiveness, this next stat spells it out: He allows the eighth-highest conversion rate inside of 3 feet in the NBA. So, if players get the ball around the hoop against him- which occurs regularly because his lack of mass makes him easy to move down low – then it is almost an automatic bucket. Lastly, Bryant is regularly late on his rotations to contest shots as a help side defender, and that results in many easy layups/dunks for the other team when he is on the court.

Mo Wagner: I’m actually a big fan of Mo Wagner’s defense outside of his fouling issues. He obviously needs to work on fouling less, but overall he is a very pesky defender with good hands that can bother opposing players. On top of being able to guard in the paint, Mo is more than quick enough to stay in front of small guards out on the perimeter when a screen forces him to switch on to them. Also, he often does a great job forcing guards coming off of ball screens towards the sideline which gives the original defender time to fight through the screen and recover. The numbers show all of this as well. Opposing players get to the rim less and shoot 7.2% worse when Mo Wagner is in the game compared to when he is on the bench. Also, Wagner’s individual matchups are shooting 5.9% under their season average inside six feet of the hoop when he is guarding them. To top it all off, Mo Wagner is second in the league in my favorite hustle stat – charges drawn per game – at 0.66. He is not All-NBA on defense by any means, but he has a positive impact on this end of the floor which cannot be said for Thomas Bryant.

Offense

Thomas Bryant:

There is a lot to like about Thomas Bryant on offense. He is athletic, he can get hot from downtown, and he is solid at finishing around the rim. Bryant shoots 59% from the floor, 34% from downtown, and 72% from the free-throw line which all results in 12ppg in 24mpg. So, he averages 18ppg per 36 minutes, and that is solid productivity from a big man. My biggest issue with him on offense is that he hoists up 3s at really really bad times on occasion. If he is feeling it and the Wizards are on a run, go ahead and let it fly big man. However, when the OTHER team is on a run, Bryant will often shoot a 3 early in the shot clock just because it’s open. Too many times I see him do this, miss the shot, and it turns into easy points on the other end off of a long rebound. 3 pointers are open for him every play at every point in the shot clock, so he needs to do a better job of having the awareness to know when it is a good time to let it fly and when it is not.

Mo Wagner:

Wagner has just as much, if not more, upside on the offensive end. He too can stretch the floor with a 3-point shot that goes in 36.5% of the time and 37.7 percent of the time off of catch and shoot situations. Then, when Wagner steps inside the 3 point line, he is good for a bucket on 70% of his attempts which clocks in at 5th best in the NBA among players who have attempted at least 100 2-point shots.  He also has done a great job attacking closeouts, hitting 14-of-20 shots that have come off of dribble drives. Lastly, his strong hands and ability to finish with the right or left has lead to him being in the 94th percentile in points per possession off of cuts (1.56 points per possession).

In 20 minutes per game, Mo Wagner averages 10.7 points and 5.7 rebounds. Per 36, that is 19.26ppg and 10.26rpg. His success on offense lies in his good footwork, 80% mark from the free-throw line, patient style of play, ability to finish with either hand, and his solid jump shot. In Thomas Bryant’s absence last night, Wagner was the primary big off the bench vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. He played 28 minutes, scored 8 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, dished out 5 assists, drew multiple offensive fouls against the Bucks, forced Giannis into his 6th foul, displayed good footwork, but fouled out & had some boneheaded plays as well. Take a look at his highlights from last night to see for yourself:

If you were a person who would’ve voted for Thomas Bryant over Mo Wagner before reading this article, I hope you have been convinced to change your position. If you were a person who would’ve voted for Mo Wagner anyways, now you have the stats to back up your choice. Wagner is much better on the defensive end than Bryant, and he holds just as much upside on offense despite being less athletic. They are both very young, and they each have lots to improve upon. Who knows who I’ll be arguing is better in two years, but as of now, I am firmly on the Mo Wagner side of this debate.