Yesterday, Bleacher Report released an article titled “The Perfect Trades to Land NBA Stars Their Ideal Sidekicks”, and in that article, they proposed the trade in the image above. Look at the trade, read the trade, analyze the trade, develop an opinion on the trade… okay, now come back and keep reading. I would not blame you if reading that trade proposal gave you some sense of excitement. As a Wizards fan, I feel the desperation of my fellow DMV residents for a return to winning basketball. Also, Rudy Gobert is one of the best centers in the league. However, I think completing a deal of this nature any time soon would be a colossal mistake.
A new “Big 3” in the East?
Yes, the Wizards need more talent to legitimately compete in the East. That’s not a secret. However, this trade wouldn’t necessarily elevate the Wizards to the heights that they desire. I want to remind everyone of one thing: John Wall tore his Achilles. That injury does not have a good track record for recovery. Those who have had such an injury tend to deal with frequent injury problems and a loss of speed for the rest of their careers. One of Wall’s greatest assets is that he has blazing speed, but how fast will he be when he comes back? One of Wall’s greatest characteristics is that he is incredibly competitive, so will he be willing to adapt to a “safer” style of play if need be? If Wall tries to change his style of play, will he still be any good? You get the point… The answer to all of these questions very well could end up being positive, but there is too much unknown in my mind to commit to “winning now”. If the team pulls the trigger on this type of deal and Wall is not the same or is not durable post-injury, then the Wizards will have $95m bunched up amongst 3 players with only 2 of them producing anything.
Gobert’s Contract is Only Through Next Season
The best argument against everything I just said above is… “Well, if it doesn’t work, Gobert will walk after one season. Thus, he will cause no financial burden on the team in the long-term”. Sure, that is 100% correct. However, is the risk of a one-year rental worth giving up a future first-round pick along with a very promising young player, Rui Hachimura? I believe that the answer is a resounding no.
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If the Wizards ended up re-signing Gobert after one season, it would almost certainly be a similar deal to the one he is already on. Unfortunately, tying up $20m+ a year at the center position has not seemed to be the winning recipe in the NBA. Look at the past handful of NBA Champions. They did not have a ton of money tied up in bigs, especially ones that could not shoot. Even Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, although both big, played the 4, not the 5, and could both step out and hit jump shots. Throwing a large portion of money into the 5 position has not proven to be the path to success.
Patience is a Virtue
I am a philosophy major, so I’ll throw some philosophical thinking in here. We are the only animal on earth that can sacrifice “now” for “a better tomorrow”. Human beings have the ability to fight impulse, use reason, and make choices with the future in mind. That is exactly what the Wizards should continue to do. Sure, bringing in Rudy Gobert would be fun. However, it likely wouldn’t bring anything more than short-term excitement, and at best a couple of second-round playoff eliminations. Then what?? Probably back to square one. Rui Hachimura has had a great rookie season, showcasing skill, IQ, and growth. Rui is only 22, so he should be entering his prime around the time that Wall is coming out of his contract (more cap space). Also, I like the idea of keeping future first-round picks at the moment because of the uncertainty around Wall and the need for more talent in the future. So, I would not be okay with Rui Hachimura or a future pick being a part of any deal at the moment. Unfortunately, “today” only has so much potential for this Wizards team, but “tomorrow”, the future, is bright. I don’t want to sacrifice what is being built in the nation’s capital for an impulsive, excitement-chasing decision that would likely lead to nothing of substance.
That is my argument for why this trade would be a huge mistake. If you agree or disagree, throw your thoughts my way on Twitter (@boosbulletsblog).
Boo On The Bullets 